Deepcut’s journalism is free to read because our readers choose to fund our work. If you want to support fearless Australian journalism, consider becoming a paid subscriber or making a donation today.

Support Deepcut

Welcome to our regular weekly wrap to ensure you’re properly informed of news that matters (with some analysis).

War in West Asia

By Antoun

• Trump scapegoating NATO for his defeat. There’s no masking the colossal blunder that was the decision on February 28 to launch a war on Iran, or that the decision was a result of Israel’s decades-long insistence on such a war – a fact even Hillary Clinton noted this week. “I also know from personal experience how Netanyahu has tried to get every American president to agree to have an open-ended war with Iran,” she said.

  • But there was no stating the obvious for Trump. His chosen scapegoat, it seems, are the Europeans for refusing to help him in a war he started and could not win.

  

  • Trump even turned on one of his erstwhile European allies, far-right Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, after she labelled Trump’s attack on Pope Leo XIV “unacceptable”. “I thought she was brave, but I was wrong,” he said.

  • His attack on Meloni coincided with Italy’s decision to suspend a defence agreement with Israel. Meloni’s shifting stance on Israel – once their closest ally in Europe – comes amid mounting public pressure, with Italy witnessing regular mass protests and strike action against Israel’s atrocities in Gaza. A September poll showed 59 percent of Italians wanted the government to cut ties with Israel.

• Backlash against the US blockade. No sooner had the US announced it was blockading Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz than Saudi Arabia lodged complaints. The Wall Street Journal reports the Saudis fear Iran could respond by asking its Houthi allies in Yemen to block the Red Sea, further crippling global trade. Saudi has been diverting its energy exports to the Red Sea, bypassing Iran’s control of the strait. China too has made it clear it disapproves of US attempts to block Chinese ships from transiting the strait, calling it “dangerous and irresponsible”. As of writing, the US says it has turned back at least eight ships.

• Israel tries to spin loss into win. Netanyahu’s government is also in PR overdrive trying to camouflage its shortcomings. Israel’s defence minister, Yisrael Katz, said this week that Israel was stronger than ever, lauding its Iran operation as a success. Except that doesn’t quite stack up to reality. Israel has been at war since late 2023 and has failed in almost every arena it has entered, overstretching its military to – as we’ve previously reported – the point of exhaustion. It has failed to cleanse Gaza or defeat Hamas, it’s suffering casualties in Lebanon and its war on Iran appears to have only empowered Iran – not to mention Israel’s shattered global standing and dramatic loss of support among the US public (left and right).

  • Netanyahu empowering loyalists at the expense of competence. The appointment this week of Belarus-born Roman Gofman as Mossad’s new head sheds light on why Israel – a state historically known for strategic calculations – is acting irrationally. Gofman’s appointment has been blasted by corners of Israeli media as “a profound rupture” in the traditional selection of Mossad’s leadership – from individuals “rooted in deep analytical rigour” to, effectively, Netanyahu loyalists “with zero prior experience in the intelligence community”. That Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s most prominent messianic extremist, welcomed his appointment as a man of “true Zionism” says a lot about the elevation of extremists to important positions and its detrimental effect on Israeli decision-making.

• Fierce battle in south Lebanon amid negotiations. An intense battle is ongoing between Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters in the town of Bint Jbeil, close to the border. Israeli forces surrounded the town several days ago amid conflicting reports from both sides. The Israeli military says it is close to capturing the town and has killed at least 100 Hezbollah fighters, while Lebanese media say Hezbollah is standing its ground.

  • Crucial, symbolic battle. Bint Jbeil carries a lot of symbolism as the stage where a similar pivotal battle took place in the 2006 war in which Israeli forces were defeated. It was also where slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivered a victory speech after the Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000.

  • Israeli casualties. Evacuation helicopters carrying wounded Israeli soldiers are flying into Rambam Hospital in Haifa with such regularity it reminded one hospital official “of the days of the First and Second Lebanon wars, with helicopters constantly evacuating wounded to us”. Ten of the recently wounded were paratroopers fighting in Bint Jbeil.

  • Destroying villages. Israel is applying its Gaza model of total annihilation to southern Lebanese villages, with widespread destruction captured by satellite – see below.

    

    Before and after – the village of al-Khiam (which we previously wrote about in September):

    Before and after – the town of Bint Jbeil:

  • Negotiations ‘positive’. Both the Israeli and Lebanese delegations walked away from talks in Washington – the first between the two countries since 1983 – with positive impressions. The Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, said afterwards that, “We are both united in liberating Lebanon from an occupation power dominated by Iran called Hezbollah”. The US, Israel and Lebanon then issued a joint statement in which Lebanon said it “underscores the principles of territorial integrity and full state sovereignty, while calling for a ceasefire and concrete measures to address and alleviate the severe humanitarian crisis that the country continues to endure as a result of the ongoing conflict”.

  • Hezbollah opposed, Netanyahu buying time. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem slammed the talks as “an act of submission and surrender”. “How strange you are!” he said of the Lebanese government. “By God, you neither fight nor allow anyone to fight, you neither confront nor allow anyone to confront.” Meanwhile, Haaretz reports that Netanyahu is using the talks to buy time and show goodwill to the US while continuing the invasion of Lebanon.

• Hind Rajab retribution in south Lebanon. The commander of the 52nd battalion of Israel’s 401st brigade, Daniel Ella, was severely injured fighting in south Lebanon. He’s of significance as – according to Dyab Abou Jahjah, the founder of the Hind Rajab Foundation – this is the battalion responsible for killing five-year-old Hind Rajab in Gaza in January 2024.

Donate to Deepcut

Democracy in Australia

By Alex

• Taylor goes far-right on migration. Liberal leader Angus Taylor has been widely condemned for proposing a Trump-style overhaul of Australia’s migration system. The Opposition’s Australian Values Migration Plan, unveiled by Taylor at the Menzies Research Centre on Tuesday, would create a legally binding ‘values test’ as a visa condition, allow screening of migrants’ social media accounts and make learning English mandatory for holders of permanent visas. Taylor claimed the 1,700 Palestinian refugees who have arrived in Australia since October 2023 are “a high risk to our nation”, and claimed that migrants from liberal democracies were more likely to hold “Australian values compared to those from other places ruled by fundamentalists, extremists and dictators”.
  
  Special Envoy to Combat Islamophobia Aftab Malik said Taylor’s comments relied on “Islamophobic tropes that vilify and dehumanise the Palestinian community”. Asylum Seeker Resource Centre deputy CEO Jana Favero called the policy “a hateful attack on migrant communities... with no basis or evidence”, while Greens Senator David Shoebridge said the plan was “a 2026 version of the White Australia Policy”.

  • Quick take: Like Sussan Ley before him, the only trick in Angus Taylor’s book is to stoke hatred and division in an effort to keep Andrew Hastie and One Nation at bay. The damage their bigoted grandstanding is doing to Australian society will be felt long after they themselves have been forgotten. A miserable legacy for two national embarrassments.

• Secret arms exports challenged in court. Three Palestinian human rights bodies are attempting to force Defence Minister Richard Marles to reveal details about Australian arms exports to Israel. The Palestinian Centre for Human Rights, Al-Haq and the Al Mezan Center for Human Rights filed a Federal Court application last week compelling Marles to produce documents relating to any Israeli arms export permits, arguing that any approvals “may be used to commit or facilitate serious human rights abuses”.
  
  A spokesperson for the Australian Centre for International Justice, which is representing the Palestinian groups in court, said the public “cannot accept the government’s ‘trust-us’ attitude to something as grave as potential Australian complicity in genocide”. In July, Declassified Australia revealed that Australia was continuing to supply arms materiel to Israel.

• Protester fights ‘crazy’ speech law. A 70-year-old man charged under Queensland’s new ‘proscribed phrases’ law has unsuccessfully tried to plead insanity on the grounds that “the charge is insane”. Jim Dowling was arrested at a March protest outside Boeing’s Brisbane headquarters for displaying a banner reading “From the river to the sea, Brisbane will be free of Boeing”.
  
  Appearing before Brisbane Arrest Court on Tuesday, Dowling said he would “like to plead insanity [as] I think the charge is insane and anyone who takes it seriously is a bit sus as well”. Speaking to supporters outside court, Dowling said “the majority of people in this country would agree with me that the law is crazy”.

• Tony Abbott laments Viktor Orbán. Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott has paid tribute to outgoing Hungarian President Viktor Orbán, who was defeated in a landslide in Sunday’s election. In power for 16 years, Orbán was one of the global far-right’s most lauded figures for his repression of democratic freedoms, xenophobic rhetoric against migrants, and muzzling of the free press.
  
  Abbott, who became a Senior Visiting Fellow of the pro-Orbán Danube Institute in 2023, said Orban as “dead right” to oppose EU free migration policies, asking: “Why should a sovereign nation be bullied by Brussels into policies that would jeopardise its future as a distinct people?”

Got a tip? Send an email to tips@deepcutnews.com or send an anonymous Signal to @deepcut.25.

Welcome to our regular weekly wrap to ensure you’re properly informed of news that matters (with some analysis).

Iran and Lebanon wars

By Antoun

• Bloody massacres in Lebanon. Israel conducted its most ferocious airstrikes against Lebanon since the war began, killing at least 254 people and wounding 1,165, Al Jazeera reports. Israel defied the ceasefire deal with powerful strikes across the country, despite Hezbollah and all other parties to the war on Iran ceasing their attacks. Desperate pleas were issued for blood donations throughout Lebanon amid overcrowding in hospitals.

  • Shocking brutality. Among the dead were three girls killed in a bombed house in the town of Aadloun in south Lebanon, a whole family in Hermel in the north-east, and a radio journalist – Ghada al-Dayekh – of the Voice of Joy. Separately, Israeli forces bombed residents awaiting a funeral procession in a town called Shmuster, killing at least 11 and wounding 20. Israel also attacked several civil defence (emergency response) centres, including a building in Tyre used by emergency workers to transport the wounded to hospitals.

  • Strikes hit central Beirut. Residents in Beirut were in a state of shock and panic as Israeli strikes hit numerous neighbourhoods in central Beirut and its southern suburbs. Israeli warplanes also struck areas in the Bekaa in the country’s east and continued its aggression in south Lebanon. Lebanese state media reports that Israeli forces also detonated houses in Lebanese villages along the border, including Naqoura and Aita al-Shaab. Israel says it hit 100 Hezbollah sites in 10 minutes, branding its assault “Operation Eternal Darkness”. Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar newspaper played with those words in a headline, “100 massacres in 10 minutes”.

    • Quick take: Israel had invaded Lebanon without the bulk of its air force, which had been in use against Iran. The ceasefire returned Israel’s full air power, allowing for a ruthless wave of airstrikes.

• Netanyahu rejects ceasefire in Lebanon. Hours after the two-week ceasefire deal had been announced, Israeli prime minister and wanted war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu openly rejected the ceasefire’s application to Lebanon. This came despite Pakistan’s Prime Ninister Shebaz Sharif saying Lebanon was included in the ceasefire, and Israeli security officials confirming that fact to Israeli media.

  • Trump says no, negotiator says yes Lebanon included in deal. The US president said Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire, despite a regional official who took part in the negotiations also confirming that Lebanon was part of the deal. Spain and France rebuked Netanyahu, insisting that Israel cease its attacks on the country. The Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, said Israel’s “contempt for life and international law is intolerable”.

  • Iran closes Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced it was closing the strait amid Israel’s ceasefire violations. “The White House’s claim that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire is an example of reneging on the agreement,” Iran’s foreign ministry said. Direct talks slated for Friday in Islamabad are also in jeopardy, with Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf saying a “bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable” given the violations.

• Israel caught by surprise. Israel agreed to the ceasefire but perhaps begrudgingly. An Israeli official told Israel’s public broadcaster that they “were surprised by Trump’s decision. We received updates in the final moments when everything seemed finalised”.

  • Internal Israeli pressure. As soon as the ceasefire was announced, Netanyahu’s internal opponents came out in fury. Chief among them was opposition leader Yair Lapid, who said, “There has never been such a political disaster in all of our history. Israel wasn’t even at the table when decisions were made concerning the core of our national security.” He went on to say that Netanyahu “failed politically, failed strategically, and didn’t meet a single one of the goals that he himself set”.

    • Quick take: Netanyahu, personally, needs forever wars. As soon as the fighting stops, the domestic focus in Israel will turn to Netanyahu’s security failures, his corruption trial and a looming election later this year.

• Iran has already won the war. The two-week ceasefire deal – agreed to at the last minute through Pakistani mediation – reportedly allows Iran, along with Oman, to charge ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Winning control of this vital strait – through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil transits – is a major strategic win for Iran, which had listed this as part of its 10-point proposal to end the war.

  • US Senator Chris Murphy called Iran’s control over the strait, if true, “a history-changing win for Iran”.

• What is Iran’s 10-point plan? According to Tasnim news agency, an Iranian outlet, the plan is as follows:

  • US commitment to non-aggression

  • Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz

  • Acceptance of Iranian uranium enrichment

  • Removal of all primary sanctions on Iran

  • Removal of all secondary sanctions on Iran

  • Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions against Iran

  • Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors decisions against Iran

  • War reparations paid to Iran

  • Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region

  • Cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.

• From “maximalist” to acceptance? A day earlier, a US official called this a “maximalist” position from Iran. US special envoy, and ardent Zionist, Steve Witkoff reportedly called it “a catastrophe”. But in agreeing to the ceasefire, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said “the American side, despite all its outward threats, has accepted these principles as the basis for negotiations and has submitted to the will of the Iranian nation”. It also “emphasised that this does not mean the end of the war – Iran will only accept an end to the war when, given the acceptance of the principles of Iran’s 10-point plan, the details are also finalised in negotiations”.

• Trump’s hubris masked as desperation. And not a very convincing mask. If anything, the escalation of his unhinged posts on Truth Social over the last month only made it obvious that he was losing a war he started. It was poorly disguised desperation throughout – from pleading then lambasting NATO allies for not helping; to issuing hollow threats only to back down with repeated deadline extensions; to this week’s extraordinary, genocidal threat that ‘a whole civilisation will die tonight’ before again backing down. And not only did he back down, he seemingly agreed to Iran’s demands as “the basis for negotiations”.

  • Trump demonstrated ‘genocidal intent’ with ‘civilisation’ threat. Renowned political scientist and professor at the University of Chicago, John Mearsheimer, was among the first to point out that, under international law, Trump’s threat “reflects genocidal intent”. “Indeed, this is rhetoric you would expect from Adolf Hitler, not from the president of the US,” he wrote.

  • Trump’s unhinged behaviour putting the world at risk. Democrat leaders, including pro-Israel supporters such as Nancy Pelosi and Hakeem Jeffries, are calling on Republicans to “invoke the 25th Amendment”, which gives the US Cabinet the power to declare a president “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”. So too are his former MAGA loyalists such as Marjorie Greene-Taylor, who also called for the 25th amendment, and Candace Owens, who called him a “genocidal lunatic”.

• Does this mean the war is over? No. Iran has made clear that war will resume if its 10-point plan is not met, and has so far pointed out three violations – Israel’s attacks on Lebanon one of them. Netanyahu also seems bent on wrecking the ceasefire, affirming that the deal was not an end to the war. If Trump is unable or unwilling to rein in Netanyahu, the war could resume sooner than hoped.

Democracy in Australia

By Alex

• News Corp faces race hate suit. A new Federal Court lawsuit alleges that News Corp media outlets “engaged in racial hatred and discrimination against Palestinians of all faiths and Arab Muslims”. Australia Palestine Advocacy Network President Nasser Mashni, lawyer Engy Abdelsalam and five anonymous complainants allege that News Corp and several of its media subsidiaries breached the Racial Discrimination Act by “publish[ing] and disseminat[ing] atrocity propaganda” that created hatred and contempt for “Muslim, Arab and/or Palestinian Australians”. Mashni said News Corp and its titles had “engaged in hateful, extreme, dangerous, divisive and racist conduct, and it’s time that they stopped being treated as credible news sources”.

• Billionaires, conservatives back Roberts-Smith. Gina Rinehart, Elon Musk, Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson are among the prominent figures lamenting the arrest of former soldier Ben Roberts-Smith. Roberts-Smith was arrested at Sydney airport on Tuesday and remanded in custody in Silverwater Correctional Complex after being charged with five counts of war crimes, including murder. Rinehart – who has vocally supported Roberts-Smith since allegations against him were first published by Nine newspapers in 2018 – told the Sydney Morning Herald that Roberts-Smith deserved “compassion and the Aussie spirit”. Writing on Twitter/X, Musk said that Roberts-Smith’s arrest “sounds insane”. Seven West Media chair Kerry Stokes – who was ordered to pay $13.5 million in costs to Nine’s legal team last year after bankrolling Robert-Smith’s unsuccessful defamation lawsuit – declined to comment on his arrest.

  Subscribe now

• ‘Banned phrase’ user appears in court. The first person to be formally charged under Queensland’s new prohibition of the phrase ‘from the river to the sea’ has vowed to fight the law in court. Activist Liam Parry was arrested last month after giving a speech using the now-banned phrase during a rally outside Queensland’s parliament. Dozens of supporters attended a rally in support of Parry outside Brisbane’s Roma Street Magistrates Court on Wednesday, where a 70-year-old man was warned by police to dispose of a sign reading “From the sea to the river, Palestine will live forever”. Speaking to reporters outside the courthouse, Parry said “people won’t accept their civil rights and civil liberties being taken away”.

Check out our new podcast, Deepthink. We speak with Senator David Shoebridge on the Iran war, the Australia-US alliance and the surging UK Greens. Listen on Spotify, Apple, Deezer or watch on YouTube.

Welcome to our regular weekly wrap to ensure you’re properly informed of the news that matters (with some analysis).

Iran and Lebanon wars

By Antoun

• Is Trump preparing to lose the war in Iran? His comments this week that the US could end the war within two to three weeks without reopening the Strait of Hormuz signals nothing short of defeat. Iran is seeking to impose a new reality in the strait whereby it extracts transit fees from ships. An abrupt US retreat would effectively cede the strait to Iranian control, leaving Iran more empowered than where it was before the war. Other nations that Trump says should “fend for themselves” in securing oil and gas shipments through the strait are unlikely to go to war with Iran – the numerous diplomatic overtures to Tehran this month suggest deals are more likely instead.

• Spinning a ‘victory’ narrative to end the war. Trump will never frame this defeat as such, and will seek to manufacture a narrative that allows him to declare “mission accomplished”. We’re already seeing hints in the language used, with US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth declaring on Tuesday that “regime change has occurred” in Iran.

  • Fact check: Regime change has not occurred. The US and Israel killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as well as a slew of top officials, but that has only paved the way for a fresh crop of leaders. If anything, the Iranian regime appears even more firmly entrenched. But Trump needs to sell a win, and killing the ayatollah might be the spin that gets him out of a mess of his own making.

• Not a great week for Israel. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz repeated Israel’s intention to occupy south Lebanon, as Benjamin Netanyahu ordered an expansion of the invasion. But deeper Israeli incursions have been met with fierce resistance from Hezbollah fighters. Four Israeli soldiers were killed this week, bringing the Israeli death toll to 10 since their offensive into Lebanon began.

  • Guerrilla warfare: From what can be gathered, the invasion so far appears to be reminiscent of past Israeli attempts to control south Lebanon. A large army rolls in with traditional hardware only to be plucked off by mobile and hidden guerrilla fighters. This is essentially how the four soldiers were killed. As described by an Israeli outlet, the Israeli forces walked into a Hezbollah ambush. Even as Netanyahu promises to persist with the Lebanon invasion should the Iran war end, it is difficult to see how renewed occupation will differ from the past. The intensity of Hezbollah’s current attacks serves as a reminder to Israel that – as during the 1978-2000 Israeli occupation of south Lebanon – its forces will unlikely see peace while they remain on Lebanese soil.

  • Iranian missile superiority? Iranian missile barrages have decreased since the beginning of the war, but it continues to demonstrate the ability to hit key targets in Israel. This week they struck two: an oil refinery in Haifa and a chemical plant in Ramat Hovav, southern Israel.

  • Israeli support for war drops. A poll conducted a month into the war shows a 15-point drop in Israeli public support, compared to the first week of the war. Although still high at 78% support, it is the first indicator that Iranian attacks on Israel are having an impact on the public mood. Remember that the Israeli military imposes tight censorship on reports of damage, largely to keep its domestic population fed a narrative of strength and invincibility.

Support Deepcut

• Most American Jews oppose war: Sixty percent of American Jews oppose the war, according to a J Street poll. More importantly, 70% said they opposed unconditional US military and financial assistance to Israel.

• Fracture with Europe widens. A side-story to this war has been the unusual assertiveness demonstrated by Europe in its rejection of the US war. Just this week, Spain, Italy and France refused US use of their bases in the war, while Poland rejected a US request to relocate Patriot missiles to West Asia amid reports of diminishing air defence stocks. Trump hasn’t hid his contempt for Europe in his almost-daily attacks on NATO and/or specific European powers. Among his rants this week was a warning that the US may walk away from its commitment to defend NATO allies.

• UAE’s push for more war. The UAE, Israel’s closest ally in the region, has borne much of Iran’s fury since the initial Israeli/US attacks that sparked the war. Iran has fired more than 2,300 drones and missiles at the UAE, with US$120bn wiped from UAE markets. It perhaps explains why the UAE is pressing Trump to continue the war, with a UAE minister saying “coexistence with the Iranian regime” is impossible.

  • Quick take: The war has exposed the UAE as a mirage of opulence masking its fragile reality. Outside of its petro-wealth, the UAE has sought to position itself as a global logistics hub and tourist destination. Both of these sectors depends on open shipping lanes, airports and a reassurance of safety – all of which have been disrupted by Iran. Should Trump walk away with Iran in control of the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE will be left in a much weaker position than prior to the war.

• Iraqi threats of retaliation against Kuwait. Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have also been pushing Trump to go harder on Iran. Kuwait has faced extensive Iranian attacks on US bases and energy infrastructure, including its largest oil refinery. In response to US threats of a ground invasion of Iran, Iraqi Shia militias have warned it will “respond in kind”, hinting at a possible invasion of Kuwait.

  • Quick take: Fear is likely driving Kuwait’s push for the US and Israel to weaken Iran. By virtue of its small size and location, Kuwait has been made particularly vulnerable by this war. It is heavily reliant on food imports through the Strait of Hormuz, and in the first weeks of the war saw a 30% increase in the price of meat and fish. Kuwait not only borders Iraq, it is also a short 23km from Iranian territory. An Iraqi ground incursion supported by Iranian forces is not beyond the realm of possibility. Such a scenario would likely trigger a Saudi response and a dramatic, bloody escalation in the conflict.

• Stats of note:

  • Thirteen US bases have been made “uninhabitable” by Iran’s retaliatory strikes (source: NYT)

  • The Israeli Air Force has carried out more than 800 strikes on Iran, dropping 16,000 bombs (source: Israeli Air Force)

  • More than 90,000 residential units in Iran have been hit by US/Israeli airstrikes, as well as 307 health facilities and 760 schools (source: Iranian Red Crescent)

  • Four million people in the Arab world could be forced into poverty due to the economic losses sustained from the war, which could amount to US$200bn of economic growth (source: UN)

Democracy in Australia

By Alex

• Queensland police target artists. Queensland police are investigating several Brisbane-based artists under new laws banning the display or publication of the phrase ‘from the river to the sea’. Artist James Hillier was contacted by police on Sunday regarding an artwork he published on social media depicting 18-year-old activist Bonnie Carter, who was herself arrested in March for wearing a shirt with the banned phrase. Artist Emilia Cilento was also forced to remove online artwork using the phrase after being contacted by police.
  
  Meanwhile, a Brisbane mural by Sydney-based street artist Scott Marsh depicting singer John Farnham was vandalised this week, with lyrics from Farnham’s song ‘Two Strong Hearts’ that closely mimic the banned phrase painted over. “When artists are being threatened with years in jail time for painting pictures you know we are headed down a very dark road,” Marsh said on social media.

• Opposition to imposed ‘antisemitism’ training. Academics at the University of Sydney have accused management of censoring staff who express concern about compulsory new ‘antisemitism’ training. Posts along those lines by senior lecturers Nick Riemer and David Brophy in the university’s internal staff messaging platform, Viva Engage, were removed within minutes by an anonymous moderator, with both academics receiving warnings that they may be in breach of the platform’s terms of use. The university has brought in the mandatory training in line with recommendations handed down by the antisemitism special envoy, Jillian Segal. On Tuesday, Riemer also expressed concern that Dr. Michael Abrahams-Sprod, a coordinator for pro-Israel group the Australian Academic Alliance Against Antisemitism, has been appointed as special advisor to vice-chancellor Mark Scott.

  • Quick take: Universities have become one of the most contested battlegrounds in the fight between free speech advocates and the pro-Israel lobby, and nowhere has the fight been more protracted than at the University of Sydney. Riemer is one of two USyd academics defending a class action lawsuit in the Federal Court alleging racial discrimination over his criticisms of Zionism and Israel – a suit that more than 50 Jewish staff and students have condemned as “part of concerted and coordinated efforts to silence critics of Israel across Australia’s university campuses”.

• Hearing date set for NSW officer accused of assaulting former Greens candidate. Senior Constable Christopher Davis, the officer accused of assaulting Hannah Thomas, will not face a hearing until 2027. Davis pleaded not guilty to two charges stemming from the arrest of Thomas and four others at an anti-genocide protest in Belmore last June. Thomas was hospitalised following her arrest and has since had three rounds of surgery on her right eye. “So many officers within NSW Police have engaged in sickening brutality,” Thomas wrote on social media on Tuesday. “Yet they’re still on the streets, policing protests with an ever-expanding arsenal of weapons and the green light from the Minns Government to keep up the good work.”

• New legal nonprofit to defend civil liberties. The Civil Liberties Defence Centre pledges to support people facing lawfare attacks for their “support of human rights in the Middle East”. The centre vows to “provide legal advice, assistance and representation to disadvantaged people facing legal issues due to the exercise of their civil rights in Australia” and advocate for greater legal protections for freedom of speech and civil liberties. The CLDC’s inaugural fundraising dinner is scheduled for May.

Got a tip? Drop an email to tips@deepcutnews.com or send an anonymous Signal to @deepcut.25.

Welcome to our second weekly wrap to ensure you’re properly informed of news that matters (with some analysis).

Democracy in Australia

By Alex

• Permanent, well-funded campaigns of anti-climate change propaganda are endangering Australia’s national security. That’s the key finding of the The Climate Disinformation War, a new report from the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group (ASLCG) which warns that “Australians now live in a world increasingly shaped by propaganda and disinformation” designed to “degrade the information environment itself”. The report describes vast “opaque financial networks”, funded by the fossil fuel industry, that wage “information warfare” to exert “control over content production and dissemination” through mass media, think tanks, PR companies, social media, influencers and AI bots in order to advance “anti-climate-action, anti-regulatory, and anti-democratic agendas”.

  • Quick take: From Advance to News Corp to The Nightly, the new ‘news’ outlet bankrolled by Gina Rinehart, it’s not hard to see the constellation of cashed-up bad actors sowing anti-climate conspiracy theories. It’s also not difficult to see that it’s working; the rise of One Nation as a viable electoral force is being fuelled to some extent by friendly media coverage, financial support from billionaires, and AI slop on Facebook.

• The Australia Palestine Advocacy Network (APAN) is demanding answers from the federal government over visas that were granted to a troupe of female Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers. In a letter to the home affairs minister, APAN President Nasser Mashni sought clarification on how the visas were issued, including whether Tony Burke exercised “any Ministerial directions or exemptions”.

• It was a week of strikes. More than 35,000 Victorian public school teachers rallied in Melbourne on Tuesday, marking the first time the Australian Education Union’s Victorian branch has gone on strike in 13 years. AEU members voted to strike last week after the state Labor government offered a pay rise of 18.5% over four years, barely half the 35% raise the union sought when negotiations began in July. The Victorian branch of the Community and Public Sector Union (CPSU) claims the government has tried to pressure its members who work as education support officers or for the Victorian Department of Education to staff classrooms. The CPSU urged its members to support the AEU strike instead.

  • ABC journalists and presenters also took strike action this week, and for the first time in more than 20 years. ABC staff began a 24-hour walk-off on Wednesday morning after rejecting a pay rise offer of 10% over three years. The ABC were forced to play BBC content on its TV and radio channels. The Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance said its ABC members were striking for a pay rise “that keeps up with the cost of living”, greater job security and guardrails around the use of AI in newsrooms.

  • Quick take: There’s a reason why the right to strike is so circumscribed in Australia. Unlike in most other western economies – and in violation of international law – Australia only allows workers to take industrial action during periods of enterprise bargaining. It’s no surprise that the share of national wealth that goes to workers has declined to record lows since the Hawke and Keating Labor governments gutted the right to strike, sending the number of industrial disputes (and the workers involved in them) plummeting. As the artists and writers who boycotted Adelaide Writers’ Week showed us, workers withdrawing their labour is a tactic for which corporations and lobby groups have no answer.

• Counting continues following the South Australian election, with One Nation in the running to win up to four seats in the state’s 47-seat parliament. The far-right party won more than 22% of the primary vote in Saturday’s poll, comfortably beating the SA Liberal opposition into second place by vote share. While the Labor government comfortably won re-election, its primary vote fell 2.4% to 37.6% as of publication. Writing on his personal blog, ABC election analyst Antony Green warned that “when One Nation has finished its search and destroy mission against the Liberal and National parties, there are signs that Labor will be vulnerable to a similar campaign”.

Iran and Lebanon wars

By Antoun

• Donald Trump’s humiliation in Iran deepens by the week. Within 48 hours, Trump went from threatening to “obliterate their various POWER PLANTS” to postponing the strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure after “productive” talks. Except Iran denied the talks ever taking place, with parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf calling it “fake news to manipulate the financial and oil markets”.

• Suspicions of insider oil trading were boosted by a Financial Times report that “traders made bets worth half a billion dollars in the oil market about 15 minutes before Donald Trump’s post touting ‘productive’ talks with Iran sent the price of crude tumbling”. Renowned American economist Paul Krugman framed it succinctly:

  • “Imagine that you were somebody close to Trump, somebody close enough to actually have an influence on his decisions as well as inside knowledge. Here’s what you could have done really just between last night and now. You could have sold a bunch of crude oil futures, at very high prices – Brent was over $112 over the weekend – then bought them back immediately after Trump’s announcement of triumphal progress, but before the Iranians said ‘that is not happening’. And you could have turned a very, very nice, very large profit,” he wrote.

• Corruption allegations aside, Trump appears trapped in a war of his own making without an obvious off-ramp. After the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, reportedly ghosted texts from US envoy (and ardent Zionist) Steve Witkoff, a trio of regional states – Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan – stepped in as go-betweens, as disclosed by Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Araghchi maintains, however, that no talks are taking place, and Pakistani attempts to setup a meeting have failed to eventuate due to Iran’s refusal to engage the US.

• The US nevertheless sent a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran via Pakistan, which Iran has rejected. The points, as reported by Israel’s Channel 12, are as follows:

1. Removal of all sanctions on Iran

2. US assistance in advancing and developing a civilian nuclear project (electricity generation)

3. Removal of the threat of sanctions being reimposed

4. Iran’s nuclear program is frozen under a defined framework

5. Enriched uranium to remain, but under supervision and agreed limits

6. Missile program to be addressed at a later stage, with limits on quantity and range

7. Use of nuclear programs restricted to civilian/defensive purposes only

8. Development of existing nuclear capabilities halted

9. No further expansion of enrichment capabilities

10. No production of weapons-grade nuclear material on Iranian soil

11. All enriched material will be handed over to the International Atomic Energy Agency within an agreed timeline

12. Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow to be taken offline (that is, to demolish the facilities)

13. International monitoring and verification mechanisms enforced

14. Gradual implementation tied to compliance

15. Additional regional and security understandings between the parties

• Iran has shared its own demands to end the war, which reportedly include:

  • The closure of all US bases in the Gulf

  • Reparations for the damage caused by US/Israeli attacks

  • Lifting of all sanctions

  • A new order for the Strait of Hormuz allowing Iran to collect fees from ships transiting the waterway

  • Guarantees the war will not resume

  • An end to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon

  • No negotiations over its missile program

    • Quick take: The 15-point plan represents a dramatic comedown for the US. The removal of sanctions (and guaranteeing they won’t be reimposed) is a big win for Iran. The deferral of the “missile programme” to “a later stage” is also a humiliating backdown, given one of Trump’s stated (and failed) goals in this war was to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities. Still, it’s not surprise the Iranians rejected the proposal.
      
      Iran holds the cards in this war, and they know it. To emphasise how absurd Trump’s position is, his administration has already – and remarkably – eased sanctions on Iranian oil to ease pressure on prices, resulting in a US$14bn windfall for Iran. The Iranians have also begun imposing a toll on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, “collecting US$2m as transit fees from some vessels”, according to an Iranian lawmaker.
      
      The longer this war drags on, the harder it gets for the US and Israel. Trump’s approval rating hit a new low of 36% and will continue to slump as Americans feel the economic pain of the war. And Iran has increasingly been firing missiles with heavier warheads at Israel, causing major impacts – the most recent attack came hours ago at an industrial area near Dimona, the site of an Israeli nuclear reactor.

• Internal cracks are also appearing within Israel, after Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly expressed frustration at Mossad over its promise, and evident failure, to ignite an internal revolt in Iran.

• Are the attempted talks another ruse? Twice Trump lured Iran into negotiations, only to have Iran attacked while talks took place. As Trump searches for a way out of the war, he is also deploying thousands of troops to the region – up to 4,000 from the US Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division. This will add to the 50,000 US troops in West Asia, as media reports suggest a US attempt to take Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf – the hub for Iran’s oil exports – might be on the cards.

  • Quick take: Any ground assault on Kharg Island would be a catastrophic mission – a potentially haunting re-enactment of Gallipoli. There is no ground operation in Iran that appears feasible. Iran is a massive, mountainous country, it would take an army of millions to make a serious dent.

• Oil mayhem. If oil and gas shipments remain disrupted, it will have profound effects on the global economy with the pain worsening by the day. The International Energy Agency warns “no country will be immune to the effects of this crisis”, and Australia is already among the nations with a fuel crisis. Its oil imports have been disrupted, petrol stations are running out of fuel and the country is ill-prepared for prolonged conflict with only 36 days’ worth of petrol in reserve. Australia is not alone – New Zealand and South Korea are also reporting strains, and Vietnam, the Philippines and Bangladesh are expected to run out of oil within three weeks.

• Gulf split. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are edging closer to joining the war against Iran, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pushing Trump to continue the war, the New York Times reported. Qatar, however, is singing a different tune, calling for “regional coexistence”.

  • Historical context: The Qatari royal family has historically played a clever role of placating its more powerful neighbours, and sensing when the wind is shifting. They’re acutely aware that their independence, and prominence, relies on security guarantees from a greater power. It’s why they historically sought British protection in the 19th and early 20th centuries against the Ottomans and Persians, and why they were so willing to host the largest US base in the region. Qatar’s words are important – if they’re speaking Iran’s language of “regional coexistence”, it suggests they’re understanding that power in the Persian Gulf is shifting.

Subscribe now

• Israeli calls to annex south Lebanon. Israel has made their intentions to colonise south Lebanon clear – from IDF chief Eyal Zamir’s declaration of occupation and refusal to allow residents to return, to Bezalel Smotrich pushing for Israel’s border to extend to the Litani River. The tough rhetoric follows the Israeli defense minister’s threats on Sunday to turn Lebanese border villages into Gaza. And they appear to have started, with the destruction of bridges connecting south Lebanon to the rest of the country and footage surfacing of the destruction of a mosque in the village of al-Khiam. (Read our piece from September last year of a Lebanese-Australian’s return to al-Khiam, with images of the mosque at the time.)

• Hezbollah increasing its attacks. But, as with Iran, beyond attacking civilian infrastructure, it’s important to look at the military state of play. Hezbollah releases regular statements of its operations – almost never picked up by western media. In its Monday report, it said it carried out a record 63 operations against Israel in a single day, with fighting in border villages including al-Khiam. Alma Research and Education Centre, an Israeli institute founded by a former IDF lieutenant colonel, says Hezbollah has launched 779 attack waves against Israel between March 2 and 21. “There is now a sustained increase in the scale of attacks, with a shift toward higher and more consistent levels of activity in recent days,” the institute said.

• Diverting air defenses. Part of Hezbollah’s attacks has included sustained rocket and drone attacks that, according to Alma, are mostly “directed at [Israeli] border communities and the Galilee”. According to an Iranian intelligence assessment, as reported by Iranian state media Tasnim, Hezbollah’s rocket fire in the north has “compelled [Israel] to transfer air defense systems from the south to the north, creating a critical vulnerability in the skies over the southern occupied territories”. The Iranians seemingly exploited that vulnerability with a powerful missile strike targeting Dimona and Arad in Israel’s south last weekend, leaving nearly 200 wounded. (Note: Israel’s military censor strictly prevents the disclosure of details pertaining to damage and deaths.)

  • Keep an eye on: An expanded ground invasion with more Israeli forces streaming across the border. In both the 2006 and 2024 wars, Hezbollah’s ground forces managed to prevent deep Israeli incursions, and as I noted last week, IDF officials were flagging a limited operation close to the border as perhaps the most achievable outcome. The intensity of Hezbollah’s attacks suggests they were better prepared than previously thought. The political will for colonisation is clearly present among Israel’s top brass – their ability to do so, when previous invasions have failed, remains to be seen.

• ‘Dramatic spike’ in people leaving Israel. The Israeli government’s endless want for war is making the country less desirable for professionals. A new study from Tel Aviv University revealed that 100,000 Israeli professionals have left the country, “including hundreds of doctors”. “To my regret, we found that in 2023 and 2024 there was a large and even dramatic spike in the numbers leaving,” said the lead researcher. “Among the departees we identified a significant and worrisome increase in doctors, Ph.D recipients and other academics, engineers and high earners,” the researchers say. “At the same time, there has also been a slowing down and a drop in the number of Israelis coming back to live in Israel in recent years. The combination of the two is exacerbating the flight of human capital from Israel.”

• The human toll. Israel has killed at least 1,039 people and injured 2,876 in Lebanon, with 1.16 million people displaced, according to the Lebanese government. Seventy percent of the displaced Lebanese are not in shelters, the UN said. There has been no update on the death toll in Iran, but the Iranian Red Crescent says 82,417 civilian targets have been hit since the war began, including “281 hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies”.

  • Globally, the UN says the regional war could push 45 million people into acute hunger due to price hikes. “This would take global hunger levels to an all-time record and it’s a terrible, terrible prospect,” the World Food Programme said.

Got a tip? Send an email to tips@deepcutnews.com or send an anonymous Signal to @deepcut.25.

Welcome to Deepcut Weekly. We’re conscious of inundating the inboxes of our time-poor readers, so we hope that a weekly roundup of the key news covering the state of democracy in Australia and global geopolitics (with a focus on West Asia) will keep you informed.

There’s another reason we’re combining a domestic and global focus into the one newsletter. Too often, Australian media has treated domestic and global news as separate items, siloed from one another. But this creates a false image of separation – that we are somehow removed from the ongoings of the world. This could not be further from the truth – as demonstrated by the $2.30+ fuel we’re paying this week courtesy of Israel’s war on Iran.

These issues are connected. Global crises affect Australians too. And the diminishing state of our democracy is very much tied to the dangerous shifts taking place beyond our shores. Keeping our eyes on both tracks is what we intend to do.

If you want to support our work as we continue to expand our coverage, you can buy a paid subscription from $3.20 a week.

And so, our first weekly wrap:

Democracy in Australia

By Alex

• The Australia Palestine Advocacy Network (APAN) has accused the federal government of double standards for granting visas to a troupe of IDF soldiers for a “recovery trip”. The Australian Jewish News reported on Sunday that the soldiers’ Australian trip was designed to “restore self-confidence, treat physical and psychological injuries, and help veterans regain control of their lives”, with the group enjoying “puppy yoga, a MasterChef challenge, a visit to schools, and day trips to the Mornington Peninsula hot springs, wineries, surfing beaches, and Phillip Island”.
  
  Brothers For Life, an Israeli nonprofit run by IDF veterans that “supports those who have been injured defending Israel”, organised a similar Australian trip in 2024. “Palestinian voices are being silenced. Protest is being restricted. Speaking out is being targeted,” APAN said on social media. “At the same time, Australia is hosting Israeli soldiers to recover from a genocide that continues to devastate Palestine. This is not neutrality. It is complicity.”

• NSW Police are investigating an American DJ accused by Zionist lobby groups of “antisemitic” statements a Sydney Biennale event. Zubeyda Muzeyyen, aka DJ Haram, led chants of “from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free” and “long live the resistance”, referred to “the Zio-Australian-Epstein empire” and said Australia was complicit in the “ongoing genocide by Israel” during her Biennale opening-night set at Sydney’s White Bay Power Station on Friday.
  
  Consultancy firm PwC has terminated its 24-year relationship with the Biennale over Muzeyyen’s remarks, while the NSW Jewish Board of Deputies has reported them to NSW Police. Muzeyyen seemingly made a veiled reference to the media attention on Monday, posting “garbage ass bitches guess that why u talking trash🔻” on Instagram.

• Queensland human rights organisations, anti-genocide groups and unions are launching a campaign against new state laws criminalising the phrases “globalise the intifada” and “from the river, to the sea”. The Not Our Laws campaign will launch outside state Parliament on Friday, stating that “pro-Israel politicians and lobbyists just helped shape a Queensland law to silence Palestinian voices and protect [Israel] from criticism”. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar praised the laws on Sunday, telling a webinar hosted by Zionist Federation of Australia president Jeremy Leibler that “to the extent that you can influence other districts or states in Australia to do the same, that would be blessed”.

• NSW parliament will hold an inquiry into establishing a state human rights act. Parliament voted unanimously on Wednesday to establish the inquiry, which already has the support of the NSW Greens and five state independents. The NSW Bar Association and Amnesty International are among the more than 120 legal peak bodies, unions and civil society groups supporting the push. Greens NSW MP Jenny Leong, who first introduced the bill in October 2025, said a state human rights act would “would give people from across the community a valuable tool to use to ensure their basic human rights and dignity are respected, and to take action when they are not”.

Support Deepcut

Iran and Lebanon wars

By Antoun

• Donald Trump is in a jam in Iran, and his desperate pleas for other nations to help re-open the Strait of Hormuz have made that clear. Wherever he’s turned, from Berlin to Beijing, the answer has been the same: no. In Germany’s case, they were unusually blunt: “this is not our war”. Earlier in the week, Trump was talking of a “team effort”, urging “Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait” to “take care of that passage” with US help. By yesterday, he was excoriating allies from Europe to Japan, Australia and South Korea, all of whom had refused to send warships – “WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!” Trump also delayed a meeting with Xi Jinping, reportedly in protest at China’s refusal to help with the strait.

  • What this means: Iran has the cards here. They’ve easily been able to close the strait through which 20% of the world’s oil passes daily, and the US – as well as everyone else it seems – understands that sending warships to the strait is a suicide mission inviting Iranian drones and missiles.

• The war is also causing a rift within MAGA. Joe Kent, the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center and an ardent Trump loyalist (up until now), resigned from the Trump administration, calling out Israel and “its powerful American lobby” for dragging the US into the Iran war. This came days after Axios reported a sentiment of “buyer’s remorse” within Trump’s inner circle, with several officials believing the attack on Iran was a mistake.

• Gulf states, and Saudi Arabia in particular, have ben urging the US to “neutralise Iran for good”. Despite official Saudi denials they have been urging Trump to go harder on Iran, there have now been numerous reports suggesting the Gulf states are supportive of the US-Israeli war.

  • The Gulf states have borne the brunt of Iran’s retaliation, with repeated missile and drone attacks targeting US bases and the closed Strait of Hormuz crippling their ability to export oil and gas. Goldman Sachs warns that if the strait is closed until the end of April, the economies of Qatar and Kuwait will contract by 14%, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE could shrink by 5% and 8% respectively. Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has told Gulf states to close US bases or face more attacks.

  • The Gulf predicament: Even if the Gulf states were to join the war, it’s hard to see what little difference they can make. Their forces are not the most fearsome (the Saudi/UAE were humiliated against the Houthis after their attempted invasion of Yemen in 2015). They have more to lose than gain from entering the war. All Iran needs to do is knock out their oil and gas facilities as well as their desalination plants (the Gulf states are desert, making them dependent on desalination for drinking water) and the Gulf states are toast.

• Israel has denied a report citing a US official who claims the country is running “critically low” on air defence interceptors. But that denial came hours after Israel approved US$826m in additional funds for “urgent and essential defence procurement”.

  • Israel announced the beginning of its ground invasion into Lebanon on Monday, its fifth into Lebanon in the last 50 years. But there’s mixed messages from Israel regarding their objectives. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz suggested a broader campaign, saying hundreds of thousands of displaced Lebanese residents would not be able to return to their homes until “north Israel is safe”.
    
    A broad campaign is also sought by Benjamin Netanyahu’s allies. The Israeli prime minister – wanted by the ICC on charges of war crimes – last August expressed his support for a Greater Israel with expanded boundaries. But IDF officials are suggesting a limited campaign that would only push Hezbollah away from the border, saying they would not be able to stop Hezbollah rocket launches into northern and central Israel.

  • Israeli uncertainty: There’s perhaps a realistic understanding of the challenges of a Lebanon invasion within Israeli military circles who have experienced those challenges, as opposed to messianic politicians dreaming of a Greater Israel. Lebanon is mountainous terrain, making movement of hefty tanks cumbersome and easy prey. That’s already been proven. Hezbollah have released almost daily statements since they entered the war of targeting Merkava tanks (which cost about US$5m per tank) with anti-tank missiles. Just yesterday, Hezbollah said they had destroyed five tanks.

• The human toll of war continues to worsen by the week. In Lebanon, one million people – a fifth of the country – have been displaced with thousands of families sleeping in tents on the streets, after Israel gave forced displacement orders for south Lebanon and southern Beirut suburbs. In Iran, the UNHCR says up to 3.2 million people have been displaced.
  
  At least 1,444 Iranians have been killed, among them at least 200 women. In Lebanon, at least 912 have been killed, with 15% of them children. The Iranian Red Crescent says 67,414 civilian targets have been damaged or destroyed following direct or indirect US-Israeli airstrikes, including nearly 500 schools.