Hamas's big gamble – trusting Trump
Hamas is pinning its hopes on Donald Trump to ensure the Gaza ceasefire holds
On the surface, it appears that all parties are finally on the same page on ending the genocide in Gaza. Hamas's lead negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, announced yesterday that “we have reached an agreement to end the war”.
This followed similar declarations from US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who remains an international fugitive with or without a ceasefire.
Trump’s primary motivation is, unsurprisingly, himself – a desire to bask in the glory of a Nobel Peace Prize. That the narcissism of a US billionaire could end a genocide is fittingly dystopian for the obscene reality the world has witnessed over the past two years.
And this is precisely what Hamas is betting on – that Trump’s self-serving ambitions will restrain Israel from resuming its war on the Gaza Strip.
By agreeing to hand over the remaining 48 Israeli captives, living and deceased, Hamas is forfeiting its leverage. It has no cards left, save the resilient existence of the Palestinian people in Gaza.
This is a major gamble, given how the last ceasefire unfolded.
Like the current deal, the previous agreement in January also saw a phased approach. The first phase focused, similarly, on a prisoner exchange with the second and third phases to be negotiated. As Hamas prepared to discuss the second phase in March, Israel unilaterally broke the ceasefire, resuming its campaign after a 42-day truce that included a total siege of the Gaza Strip, which precipitated a man-made famine.
There is little reason to assume Israel won’t violate the ceasefire again – as it has done almost daily in Lebanon since entering a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah last November.
And while all sides are heralding an end to war, few details have emerged of the trickier path towards a second phase of the agreement.
In its response to the US-Israeli 20-point plan, Hamas deferred several contentious points to future negotiations. The time for those negotiations has arrived, and daylight remains between several aspects of the plan and Hamas’s publicly stated position – that there be no foreign force or foreign governance in Gaza, that any Palestinian government in Gaza will remain armed and that Hamas will remain part of the Palestinian political scene.
News today that the US is deploying 200 troops to Israel – along with representatives from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey – to, as the agreement stipulates, “follow up on the implementation with the two sides and coordinate with them”, suggests Hamas has shown some flexibility on this point.
That the contingent will include Hamas’s two trusted regional hosts – Qatar and Turkey – also hints at US and Israeli compromise. Not mentioned, at least so far, is the highly controversial “board of peace” originally listed in the 20-point plan involving Tony Blair.
Nevertheless, several landmines exist on the path to a permanent end to the war. The first is the very reason we have arrived at this point – Trump’s narcissism. Should he not win the Nobel Peace Prize, what personal incentive remains for Trump to stay the course?
The second is Israel’s messianic extremists – national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich – who oppose the agreement and will be heaping pressure on Netanyahu to resume the war.
The third is Netanyahu himself, who prolonged the Gaza genocide – and expanded the war across the region – partly due to his own wish for a Greater Israel, and partly to thwart internal recriminations regarding the October 7 attack as well as corruption proceedings that could mark his downfall.
Looming over all of this is the risk that second-phase negotiations collapse and Israel resumes its onslaught.
What is facing Hamas is a new set of rules imposed by Israel and the US – one in which Israel ferociously pummels and besieges Gaza whenever Hamas disagrees with a negotiating point. If such a plausible scenario unfolds, the key difference is that Hamas will be without leverage, leaving the fate of Gaza’s Palestinians in the hands of others – the Qataris, the Egyptians, the Turks… and Trump.