Is there a correlation between years of government neglect of certain electorates and an uptick in One Nation support? Yes, according to data analysis.
The far-right party is capturing anti-establishment sentiments among the mostly working-class outer suburbs and regions. Its primary vote ahead of the Victorian state elections – the party’s first real test of its newfound support – is hovering at 25%.
Outer suburban Melbournians would be right to scoff at yearly global rankings that have the city sitting as one of the most liveable. That certainly hasn’t been their experience, and the data shows it.
Victoria has poured about $160bn into infrastructure over the past decade, including high-profile projects such as the Metro Tunnel, level crossing removals and new hospitals. But the benefits have not been evenly spread across the state, and six seats in particular tell a story of neglect.
The six areas fall into two groups. Four sit on Melbourne’s fast-growing outer edge – Melton, Werribee, Yan Yean and Pakenham – where infrastructure and services lag behind the general population. The other two, Morwell and Shepparton, are regional centres that have watched investment pass them by.
All are areas where One Nation’s support has grown, and where the sense of being left behind runs deep. Roy Morgan’s September seat model projects Morwell – home to the state’s fourth most disadvantaged council – as the most winnable seat for One Nation. The remaining five sit among the 40 most winnable for the far-right party, out of 88 Victorian lower house seats. In Pakenham, where One Nation’s Victorian leader is contesting, Labor’s lead is just 0.4%.
A look at capital investment data – which measures government spending on the building and upgrading of infrastructure such as train lines, roads, schools, hospitals and sewerage – shows clear under-investment in these six seats.
Combined, these seats are home to one-in-six Victorians (16.5%), but their total share of state capital investment is just 5.1%. In 2023-24, their share dropped to a paltry 2.2%. Wyndham, which encompasses the state electorate of Werribee, is the second most populous local government area and home to about 5.3% of all Victorians, yet has received no more than 1.5% of state capital investment in any year since 2016-17.
Other electorates may also under-index in terms of state capital investment, but infrastructure needs vary depending on growth. New suburbs require greater infrastructure investment, which has not occurred under the Andrews-Allan governments of the last decade.
Instead, the state government has allowed property developers to run wild in outer suburbs like Werribee – cramming residents in profit-driven new estates with few amenities, infrastructure and green space.
The four metro seats are among Australia’s fastest growing areas, where the population has exploded by 44% in the past decade (compared to 18% of the overall Greater Melbourne area) and is projected to grow another 31% over the next 10 years. Yet, remarkably, state capital investment per capita for these four electorates over the same timeframe fell by 41%.
No one should be surprised that these communities are angry and looking for a wrecking ball to a political system that has overseen worsening living standards. What this data translates to in real life is parents being stuck in 45-minute logjams just to pick up their kids from school.
Access to public transport tells a similar story. About half of Melbournians live within walking distance of a ‘turn-up-and-go’ frequency – a train, tram or bus every 15 minutes during the day. However, this access relates to advantage. Council areas with the most frequent trains are also, unsurprisingly, the most affluent.
According to SEIFA – the ABS’s census-based measure of an area’s socioeconomic advantage – Oakleigh and Hawthorn in Melbourne’s east are among the state’s most advantaged electorates.
Oakleigh gets about 250 trains in a weekday and Hawthorn 225 trains (and five tram routes which this chart does not capture).
The forgotten four outer suburban electorates tell a very different story. The three with electrified lines – Werribee, Pakenham, Yan Yean – receive less than 150 trains in a weekday.
Melton, which has seen its population balloon by 71% in the last 10 years, was promised an electrified line by the Labor government in 2018, only for Labor to break its promise and push electrification to an unknown date in the 2030s or beyond.
Werribee was also promised upgraded services with the Geelong Fast Rail, but Labor (federal) reneged on that too – scrapping the project in 2023.
Morwell has a train roughly every 40 minutes. Shepparton, in the state’s bottom five, only has six return trains in a workday. Nine were promised in 2023 and still haven’t arrived. None of the six seats have turn-up-and-go frequencies. These households are often furthest from work and on the tightest budgets.
The state government has spent big on infrastructure, but benefits have been concentrated in the wealthiest, more established suburbs. Victoria’s fastest-growing areas are overflowing with residents in profit-driven, under-serviced new estates and successive Labor governments have shown little interest in maintaining their quality of life. It’s no wonder these communities are looking for alternatives to a system that’s failed them.
Can we stop the in-depth bullshit on this deus ex machina, that is Pauline Hanson?
One Nation will be what it has always been for what is a fundamentally a two-party system.
It is a stalking horse for the Liberal National Party.
The parliament votes either YES or NO on particular legislation and in that decision, there are mechanically only two parties.
And metaphysically of course ...Only ONE PARTY.
What is entertaining though is that with the Pauline Hanson gang...morons have the right to representation by their peers.
Too bad they will remain in denial when more and more the news comes out that the ugly bitch has ripped off all her acolytes wholesale.
Don't forget to vote morons.
If One Nation pick up seats it will be the Labor Party's fault. Very scary.