The gas industry is all bluster. Labor needs to stop fearing them – Greg Jericho

Gas executives are afraid. They should be, writes Greg Jericho

In the week before Easter, I attended the Australian Domestic Gas Outlook 2026 conference in Sydney.

I thought it might be entering the lion’s den. It was like being surrounded by kittens.

I was standing in for my boss at The Australia Institute, Richard Denniss, who was unable to attend for the session in which I was interviewed on stage. Beforehand I spoke to someone who had been at the conference all day. They told me The Australia Institute was enemy number one – hated by all for our pushing of the ACTU’s 25 per cent tax on gas exports and for our ongoing campaign against the gas industry with our ”Big gas is taking the piss” campaign.

It’s nice to be noticed, I guess. And given the gas industry is now straight out copying our adverts about the beer excise, it’s also nice of them to let everyone know we have hit a nerve.

Not having appeared before at such an event full of those who openly despise my position, I made sure I was loaded up with data and numbers and lines for the full-throated response I was sure to get.

After all, gas exporters had talked a big game in the sessions beforehand – how investment would end, the industry would be crushed, national security would be in danger.

But all I got was a whimper.

For an industry so used to being feared, or protested, my rather obvious contempt was perhaps off-putting. They are not used to people shrugging with ambivalence at the suggestion that investment would dry up were an exports tax introduced.

But hollow threats don’t deserve fear or too much concern. After all, the gas is here. If they want it, they can’t go elsewhere — do they think Qatar or Venezuela have suddenly become safe places to invest? And should I be worried if, for example, wholly Japanese-owned INPEX — which exports more gas to Japan each year than is consumed in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia combined — leaves?

I guess we’d miss out on all the royalties they pay. Oh, wait! They don’t pay any.

I guess we’d miss out on all the PRRT they pay. Oh, wait! They haven’t paid any.

I guess we’d miss out on all the company tax they pay. Oh, wait! Its major project, Ichthys LNG, hasn’t paid any.

Threatening me with a good time is not the way to scare me.

But what about all those shortages that will occur if they leave? Please.

The figures in the Australian Energy Market Operator’s 2026 Gas Statement of Opportunities released last month show domestic demand for gas is falling – by 2045 it will be half what it was last year, and the forecasts are falling at a steeper rate than expected a year ago:

In the end the event was a bit of a soft affair.

I got a couple of questions from the audience – one on whether a reservation policy would be just as good (fine, but no revenue, so no), and one who asked why, if gas companies are so profitable, their share price isn’t as high as it was back in 2022-23 when the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent world gas prices to record highs. I suggested it was not much of a quandary as to why share prices are not that high.

I also noted that I bet everyone in the room knew how well their share prices had gone since the Iran war.

I exited the stage to what could best be described as scattered applause and mostly the silence of a room filled with oil and gas executives who had no response to someone who had just spent half an hour calling bullshit on their industry.

The response reinforced what I had suspected – the industry’s power comes from bluster and noise, not from reality. Their threats are hollow, and the government needs to realise it has nothing to fear from these companies.

Next month’s budget will be an absolute marker for how the Albanese government is regarded for years to come. And should they squib it, there will be many commentators — and, perhaps, Labor supporters — pointing out that they could not afford another mining campaign against them.

But I have seen them up close – they are not the scary ones. They are the ones who are now afraid. And they should be. For too long they have convinced voters and politicians that they are vital, that they are the ones with the power.

They are not. And it is time a government also called bullshit on their bluster and noise.

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