Deepcut Weekly – Iran rejects Trump's 15-point plan; 100,000 leave Israel; and workers strike in Australia

And more on Israel's push to annex south Lebanon

Welcome to our second weekly wrap to ensure you’re properly informed of news that matters (with some analysis).

Democracy in Australia

By Alex

• Permanent, well-funded campaigns of anti-climate change propaganda are endangering Australia’s national security. That’s the key finding of the The Climate Disinformation War, a new report from the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group (ASLCG) which warns that “Australians now live in a world increasingly shaped by propaganda and disinformation” designed to “degrade the information environment itself”. The report describes vast “opaque financial networks”, funded by the fossil fuel industry, that wage “information warfare” to exert “control over content production and dissemination” through mass media, think tanks, PR companies, social media, influencers and AI bots in order to advance “anti-climate-action, anti-regulatory, and anti-democratic agendas”.

  • Quick take: From Advance to News Corp to The Nightly, the new ‘news’ outlet bankrolled by Gina Rinehart, it’s not hard to see the constellation of cashed-up bad actors sowing anti-climate conspiracy theories. It’s also not difficult to see that it’s working; the rise of One Nation as a viable electoral force is being fuelled to some extent by friendly media coverage, financial support from billionaires, and AI slop on Facebook.

• The Australia Palestine Advocacy Network (APAN) is demanding answers from the federal government over visas that were granted to a troupe of female Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers. In a letter to the home affairs minister, APAN President Nasser Mashni sought clarification on how the visas were issued, including whether Tony Burke exercised “any Ministerial directions or exemptions”.

• It was a week of strikes. More than 35,000 Victorian public school teachers rallied in Melbourne on Tuesday, marking the first time the Australian Education Union’s Victorian branch has gone on strike in 13 years. AEU members voted to strike last week after the state Labor government offered a pay rise of 18.5% over four years, barely half the 35% raise the union sought when negotiations began in July. The Victorian branch of the Community and Public Sector Union (CPSU) claims the government has tried to pressure its members who work as education support officers or for the Victorian Department of Education to staff classrooms. The CPSU urged its members to support the AEU strike instead.

  • ABC journalists and presenters also took strike action this week, and for the first time in more than 20 years. ABC staff began a 24-hour walk-off on Wednesday morning after rejecting a pay rise offer of 10% over three years. The ABC were forced to play BBC content on its TV and radio channels. The Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance said its ABC members were striking for a pay rise “that keeps up with the cost of living”, greater job security and guardrails around the use of AI in newsrooms.

  • Quick take: There’s a reason why the right to strike is so circumscribed in Australia. Unlike in most other western economies – and in violation of international law – Australia only allows workers to take industrial action during periods of enterprise bargaining. It’s no surprise that the share of national wealth that goes to workers has declined to record lows since the Hawke and Keating Labor governments gutted the right to strike, sending the number of industrial disputes (and the workers involved in them) plummeting. As the artists and writers who boycotted Adelaide Writers’ Week showed us, workers withdrawing their labour is a tactic for which corporations and lobby groups have no answer.

• Counting continues following the South Australian election, with One Nation in the running to win up to four seats in the state’s 47-seat parliament. The far-right party won more than 22% of the primary vote in Saturday’s poll, comfortably beating the SA Liberal opposition into second place by vote share. While the Labor government comfortably won re-election, its primary vote fell 2.4% to 37.6% as of publication. Writing on his personal blog, ABC election analyst Antony Green warned that “when One Nation has finished its search and destroy mission against the Liberal and National parties, there are signs that Labor will be vulnerable to a similar campaign”.

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Iran and Lebanon wars

By Antoun

• Donald Trump’s humiliation in Iran deepens by the week. Within 48 hours, Trump went from threatening to “obliterate their various POWER PLANTS” to postponing the strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure after “productive” talks. Except Iran denied the talks ever taking place, with parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf calling it “fake news to manipulate the financial and oil markets”.

• Suspicions of insider oil trading were boosted by a Financial Times report that “traders made bets worth half a billion dollars in the oil market about 15 minutes before Donald Trump’s post touting ‘productive’ talks with Iran sent the price of crude tumbling”. Renowned American economist Paul Krugman framed it succinctly:

  • “Imagine that you were somebody close to Trump, somebody close enough to actually have an influence on his decisions as well as inside knowledge. Here’s what you could have done really just between last night and now. You could have sold a bunch of crude oil futures, at very high prices – Brent was over $112 over the weekend – then bought them back immediately after Trump’s announcement of triumphal progress, but before the Iranians said ‘that is not happening’. And you could have turned a very, very nice, very large profit,” he wrote.

• Corruption allegations aside, Trump appears trapped in a war of his own making without an obvious off-ramp. After the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, reportedly ghosted texts from US envoy (and ardent Zionist) Steve Witkoff, a trio of regional states – Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan – stepped in as go-betweens, as disclosed by Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Araghchi maintains, however, that no talks are taking place, and Pakistani attempts to setup a meeting have failed to eventuate due to Iran’s refusal to engage the US.

• The US nevertheless sent a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran via Pakistan, which Iran has rejected. The points, as reported by Israel’s Channel 12, are as follows:

1. Removal of all sanctions on Iran

2. US assistance in advancing and developing a civilian nuclear project (electricity generation)

3. Removal of the threat of sanctions being reimposed

4. Iran’s nuclear program is frozen under a defined framework

5. Enriched uranium to remain, but under supervision and agreed limits

6. Missile program to be addressed at a later stage, with limits on quantity and range

7. Use of nuclear programs restricted to civilian/defensive purposes only

8. Development of existing nuclear capabilities halted

9. No further expansion of enrichment capabilities

10. No production of weapons-grade nuclear material on Iranian soil

11. All enriched material will be handed over to the International Atomic Energy Agency within an agreed timeline

12. Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow to be taken offline (that is, to demolish the facilities)

13. International monitoring and verification mechanisms enforced

14. Gradual implementation tied to compliance

15. Additional regional and security understandings between the parties

• Iran has shared its own demands to end the war, which reportedly include:

  • The closure of all US bases in the Gulf

  • Reparations for the damage caused by US/Israeli attacks

  • Lifting of all sanctions

  • A new order for the Strait of Hormuz allowing Iran to collect fees from ships transiting the waterway

  • Guarantees the war will not resume

  • An end to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon

  • No negotiations over its missile program

    • Quick take: The 15-point plan represents a dramatic comedown for the US. The removal of sanctions (and guaranteeing they won’t be reimposed) is a big win for Iran. The deferral of the “missile programme” to “a later stage” is also a humiliating backdown, given one of Trump’s stated (and failed) goals in this war was to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities. Still, it’s not surprise the Iranians rejected the proposal.
      
      Iran holds the cards in this war, and they know it. To emphasise how absurd Trump’s position is, his administration has already – and remarkably – eased sanctions on Iranian oil to ease pressure on prices, resulting in a US$14bn windfall for Iran. The Iranians have also begun imposing a toll on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, “collecting US$2m as transit fees from some vessels”, according to an Iranian lawmaker.
      
      The longer this war drags on, the harder it gets for the US and Israel. Trump’s approval rating hit a new low of 36% and will continue to slump as Americans feel the economic pain of the war. And Iran has increasingly been firing missiles with heavier warheads at Israel, causing major impacts – the most recent attack came hours ago at an industrial area near Dimona, the site of an Israeli nuclear reactor.

• Internal cracks are also appearing within Israel, after Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly expressed frustration at Mossad over its promise, and evident failure, to ignite an internal revolt in Iran.

• Are the attempted talks another ruse? Twice Trump lured Iran into negotiations, only to have Iran attacked while talks took place. As Trump searches for a way out of the war, he is also deploying thousands of troops to the region – up to 4,000 from the US Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division. This will add to the 50,000 US troops in West Asia, as media reports suggest a US attempt to take Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf – the hub for Iran’s oil exports – might be on the cards.

  • Quick take: Any ground assault on Kharg Island would be a catastrophic mission – a potentially haunting re-enactment of Gallipoli. There is no ground operation in Iran that appears feasible. Iran is a massive, mountainous country, it would take an army of millions to make a serious dent.

• Oil mayhem. If oil and gas shipments remain disrupted, it will have profound effects on the global economy with the pain worsening by the day. The International Energy Agency warns “no country will be immune to the effects of this crisis”, and Australia is already among the nations with a fuel crisis. Its oil imports have been disrupted, petrol stations are running out of fuel and the country is ill-prepared for prolonged conflict with only 36 days’ worth of petrol in reserve. Australia is not alone – New Zealand and South Korea are also reporting strains, and Vietnam, the Philippines and Bangladesh are expected to run out of oil within three weeks.

• Gulf split. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are edging closer to joining the war against Iran, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pushing Trump to continue the war, the New York Times reported. Qatar, however, is singing a different tune, calling for “regional coexistence”.

  • Historical context: The Qatari royal family has historically played a clever role of placating its more powerful neighbours, and sensing when the wind is shifting. They’re acutely aware that their independence, and prominence, relies on security guarantees from a greater power. It’s why they historically sought British protection in the 19th and early 20th centuries against the Ottomans and Persians, and why they were so willing to host the largest US base in the region. Qatar’s words are important – if they’re speaking Iran’s language of “regional coexistence”, it suggests they’re understanding that power in the Persian Gulf is shifting.

• Israeli calls to annex south Lebanon. Israel has made their intentions to colonise south Lebanon clear – from IDF chief Eyal Zamir’s declaration of occupation and refusal to allow residents to return, to Bezalel Smotrich pushing for Israel’s border to extend to the Litani River. The tough rhetoric follows the Israeli defense minister’s threats on Sunday to turn Lebanese border villages into Gaza. And they appear to have started, with the destruction of bridges connecting south Lebanon to the rest of the country and footage surfacing of the destruction of a mosque in the village of al-Khiam. (Read our piece from September last year of a Lebanese-Australian’s return to al-Khiam, with images of the mosque at the time.)

• Hezbollah increasing its attacks. But, as with Iran, beyond attacking civilian infrastructure, it’s important to look at the military state of play. Hezbollah releases regular statements of its operations – almost never picked up by western media. In its Monday report, it said it carried out a record 63 operations against Israel in a single day, with fighting in border villages including al-Khiam. Alma Research and Education Centre, an Israeli institute founded by a former IDF lieutenant colonel, says Hezbollah has launched 779 attack waves against Israel between March 2 and 21. “There is now a sustained increase in the scale of attacks, with a shift toward higher and more consistent levels of activity in recent days,” the institute said.

• Diverting air defenses. Part of Hezbollah’s attacks has included sustained rocket and drone attacks that, according to Alma, are mostly “directed at [Israeli] border communities and the Galilee”. According to an Iranian intelligence assessment, as reported by Iranian state media Tasnim, Hezbollah’s rocket fire in the north has “compelled [Israel] to transfer air defense systems from the south to the north, creating a critical vulnerability in the skies over the southern occupied territories”. The Iranians seemingly exploited that vulnerability with a powerful missile strike targeting Dimona and Arad in Israel’s south last weekend, leaving nearly 200 wounded. (Note: Israel’s military censor strictly prevents the disclosure of details pertaining to damage and deaths.)

  • Keep an eye on: An expanded ground invasion with more Israeli forces streaming across the border. In both the 2006 and 2024 wars, Hezbollah’s ground forces managed to prevent deep Israeli incursions, and as I noted last week, IDF officials were flagging a limited operation close to the border as perhaps the most achievable outcome. The intensity of Hezbollah’s attacks suggests they were better prepared than previously thought. The political will for colonisation is clearly present among Israel’s top brass – their ability to do so, when previous invasions have failed, remains to be seen.

• ‘Dramatic spike’ in people leaving Israel. The Israeli government’s endless want for war is making the country less desirable for professionals. A new study from Tel Aviv University revealed that 100,000 Israeli professionals have left the country, “including hundreds of doctors”. “To my regret, we found that in 2023 and 2024 there was a large and even dramatic spike in the numbers leaving,” said the lead researcher. “Among the departees we identified a significant and worrisome increase in doctors, Ph.D recipients and other academics, engineers and high earners,” the researchers say. “At the same time, there has also been a slowing down and a drop in the number of Israelis coming back to live in Israel in recent years. The combination of the two is exacerbating the flight of human capital from Israel.”

• The human toll. Israel has killed at least 1,039 people and injured 2,876 in Lebanon, with 1.16 million people displaced, according to the Lebanese government. Seventy percent of the displaced Lebanese are not in shelters, the UN said. There has been no update on the death toll in Iran, but the Iranian Red Crescent says 82,417 civilian targets have been hit since the war began, including “281 hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies”.

  • Globally, the UN says the regional war could push 45 million people into acute hunger due to price hikes. “This would take global hunger levels to an all-time record and it’s a terrible, terrible prospect,” the World Food Programme said.

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